Liar’s Poker
Iran denies Trump’s statements. Who’s telling the truth? Who’s bluffing? One thing’s certain: the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil prices are under pressure again.
After dropping nearly 10% yesterday, oil prices (Brent and WTI) briefly touched their March 11 lows, but the relief proved short-lived…
Once again, Trump’s comments collided with Iranian denials. Iran’s foreign minister and parliamentary spokesperson took turns announcing that no negotiations were happening with the United States.
The market seems tired of diplomatic announcements that go nowhere. It’s starting to understand it can only believe what it sees: the strait is closed, 20% of global oil flow is affected, and until traffic resumes, oil prices have no reason to fall.
The retrospective
Buyers started optimistic, trying unsuccessfully to push toward weekly resistance 1[1]. Short sellers counterattacked twice toward the weekly pivot point, hitting their mark both times [2][3].
Late in the session, buyers tried again to move forward toward daily resistance 2 but fell short of their target [4]. The market returned to its weekly pivot point for the third time just after close [5].
Today's trading plan
Short sellers remain in control. They’ve taken profits at the monthly middle S4 level for now, allowing the market to bounce.
Despite the strong downward move, sellers remain relatively cautious and buyers relatively optimistic. This suggests the bearish movement has room to run.
Given this context, I’m still favoring short trades, but with quick profit-taking at key intraday levels until buyers really get trapped in the current bounce.
Happy trading!
Maxime holds two master’s degrees from the SKEMA Business School and FFBC. As founder and editor-in-chief of NewTrading.fr, he writes daily about financial trading.
Good signs
Strike zone
One Track Hides Another