Oil prices soar
The oil price surge is hammering markets. Despite the makeshift solution the G7 is considering to halt rising prices, falling production capacity is taking its toll.

Here we are. For the first time since the war in Ukraine (2022), oil prices have broken above the symbolic $100 per barrel threshold. A “very small price to pay” for neutralizing the Iranian nuclear threat according to Trump, but already a major impact on markets.
On the energy front, Iranian oil infrastructure has been hit for the first time since the conflict began, sending thick black smoke billowing over Tehran. It’s a powerful image whose media impact likely contributed to the high we saw in oil prices.
Geopolitically, the situation looks just as grim with the announcement of Iran’s new leader who is none other than the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Mojtaba Khamenei.
After losing his father, mother, and wife in the Israeli-American strikes, it’s easier to imagine a Mojtaba Khamenei thirsty for revenge than a new leader ready to tone things down.
Amid this flood of bad news, the market is still trying to cling to hopes that G7 members will decide to tap their strategic reserves to release 400 million barrels to counter the surge in crude prices.
The retrospective

Following the excessive fear seen at the open below Monthly Support 2 [1], the market used the session to bounce intraday. Despite multiple attempts, buyers failed to break through resistance at 47,500 points [2][4][5].
On the flip side, short sellers managed to bring the market back to Monthly Support 2 mid-session [3], but didn’t press further ahead of the weekend.
My trading plan for the day

This content is not investment advice. This trading plan is shared purely for educational purposes to give you insight into one veteran trader’s preparation and reasoning process.
The bounce I expected Friday did happen, but buyers are already under pressure with another bearish gap expected at the open.
The market looks optimistic and seems to want to bounce from its overnight low, but without any bearish capitulation move and with sellers in control, I continue to favor the downside with a target of Monthly Support 3 at 46,030 points.
Good trades!
Maxime holds two master’s degrees from the SKEMA Business School and FFBC. As founder and editor-in-chief of NewTrading.fr, he writes daily about financial trading.