A swing and a miss
Despite the release of 400 million barrels from International Energy Agency (IEA) reserves, oil keeps climbing.
Nothing is working. The IEA’s 32 member countries announced yesterday the record release of nearly a third of their strategic reserves, and the crude market basically shrugged. Barely fazed by the news, Brent is back above $95 this morning.
Spread over two months, this historic operation is meant to offset the roughly one-third drop in regional production, equivalent to 4 to 5 million barrels per day.
But here’s the problem: this move tries to treat the symptom of rising oil prices without touching the root cause at all, which is the disruption of energy infrastructure across the region. Nearly two weeks into the conflict, the US and its allies have still failed to stop Iran’s asymmetric military operations in the region, including the deployment of naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
The retrospective
Short sellers managed to reach Monthly Support 2 twice [2][4] before letting the market bounce during the second half of the session.
Buying attempts toward the symbolic 47,750-point threshold [1] and the 47,500-point level [2][3] both fell just short of their targets by a handful of points.
Today's trading plan
*This is not investment advice. This trading plan is shared for educational purposes only, to give you a window into the preparation and reasoning of one experienced trader among many.*
The downtrend resumed yesterday with profit-taking at Monthly Support 2. Sellers are still in control and moving carefully.
With that in mind, I’m continuing to play the downside, targeting buyers’ stop-losses in the 46,333-point kill zone, and potentially Monthly Support 3 if selling pressure holds up through today’s session.
Happy trading!
Maxime holds two master’s degrees from the SKEMA Business School and FFBC. As founder and editor-in-chief of NewTrading.fr, he writes daily about financial trading.
The phony war
Controlled Skid
Peace pipe