Market satiation
Investors are oversaturated. Microeconomic wins. Geopolitical breakthroughs. Good news no longer moves markets, and that’s putting it mildly.
NVIDIA posted stratospheric earnings. Stock closed down 5.46%. US and Iran held promising talks. Market bounce didn’t hold. The headlines keep coming. Wall Street isn’t buying.
Is this serious? In markets, nothing’s certain. But one thing is clear: sentiment has shifted. The permanent celebration is over.
Good news gets cold shoulders now. Bad news gets visceral reactions. Inflation came in slightly hot. Dow futures dropped over 500 points in pre-market trading.
The Retrospective
Short sellers landed their punch. Weekly support 1 got hit [3]. The market probably wanted to go lower, but US-Iran negotiation headlines gave buyers a breather.
Buyers’ offensives misfired across the board. The euphoric opening push stalled dozens of points short of monthly resistance 1 [1]. The first bounce missed the weekly pivot [2]. The second bounce on the news also whiffed on that major intraday level [4].
My analysis:
- In control: Sellers
- Under pressure: Buyers
- Buyers’ dominant emotion: Euphoria (correction peak confirmed)
- Sellers’ dominant emotion: Fear
- Trend: Bearish
- Phase: Impulsive
Today’s Trading Plan
This is not investment advice. I’m sharing this trading plan for educational purposes to show you how a veteran trader thinks through setup and execution, among many other approaches.
The underlying trend stays bearish, but buyers got trapped yesterday at the open near monthly resistance 1, and they were feeling euphoric [1].
Today I’m looking to sell the optimism spikes again. Target: the buy-side stop-losses sitting below 48,776 points.
Maxime holds two master’s degrees from the SKEMA Business School and FFBC. As founder and editor-in-chief of NewTrading.fr, he writes daily about financial trading.
The phony war
Controlled Skid
Peace pipe