End of history?
The joint Israeli-American strike on Iran has set the Middle East ablaze. Now everyone’s asking the same question: is this the end of the story, or just the beginning?
Iranian state television confirmed it Sunday morning: Khamenei is dead. The joint Israeli-American strikes triggered an immediate wave of retaliation from the regime, with missiles and Shahed kamikaze drones launched in response.
Trump justified the strikes by pointing to insufficient concessions in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. The decision to take out Iran’s leadership and military arsenal is drawing uncomfortable comparisons to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, and raising fears of a prolonged conflict.
Adding to the pressure: the Revolutionary Guards announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. An unprecedented move that could force regional oil exporters to cut production, with storage capacity limited to just 25 days.
Yesterday’s recap
The short sellers found their mark twice, driving price down to the 48,776-point support and triggering stop-losses from the weakest buyers [3].
Buyers, on the other hand, couldn’t close the deal. Despite significant effort, the opening push [1], the first-session bounce [3], and the end-of-session recovery [5] all failed to break above the monthly pivot point.
My read:
- Camp in control: sellers
- Camp under pressure: buyers
- Dominant buyer emotion at last high: euphoria
- Dominant seller emotion: cautious
- Trend: bearish
- Phase: impulse
Today’s trading plan
This is not investment advice. This trading plan is shared for educational purposes only, to give you a window into how one veteran trader prepares and thinks. There are many approaches.
The underlying trend remains bearish. Buyers were euphoric when price made its high on February 26, and they got trapped just a few dozen points below monthly resistance 1 [1].
The weakest buyers had their stop-losses hit on Friday [2]. With the geopolitical backdrop now shifting, short sellers look determined to press their advantage further.
For today’s session, I’ll again be looking to sell optimism rallies, this time targeting monthly Support 1 at 48,134 points. Once that key level is reached, a short-term bounce could come into play.
Maxime holds two master’s degrees from the SKEMA Business School and FFBC. As founder and editor-in-chief of NewTrading.fr, he writes daily about financial trading.
The phony war
Controlled Skid
Peace pipe